No one saw this coming about the 50-41 Brewers leading the NL Central by 5 1/2 games over the Cubs heading to the All-Star break. Not even the diehard Brewers fan. Not even the Pollyanna Brewers fan. Not even the Brewers front office. Not even the team themselves.
The thought was it was going to take a year or two for the Brew Crew to contend for the division. Sometimes the best laid plans go awry, and in this case, this is a great thing for them, especially with the defending World Series champions underachieving at 43-45 to start the All-Star break.
The Brewers start off the All-Star break with an exclamation point by winning six of their last seven games and nine of 11 after hanging on to a 5-3 victory over the Yankees Sunday afternoon at Yankee Stadium. After watching them find a way to win again, it is time to take them seriously as a legitimate NL Central contender.
When a team starts believing they can win every game, it becomes contagious. The Brewers are having confidence each and every game, and it’s no wonder why they have sustained this for 4 1/2 months. There’s something about them that should make everyone think they are not going away despite them getting off to great starts just to fade in the second half.
The Brewers have a shot to win the division based on their ability to hit home runs. They are second in Major League Baseball for the most home runs with 138 HRs while the Astros lead the majors with 148. They have six players with double-digit home runs in Eric Thames (23), Travis Shaw (19), Domingo Santana (15), Keon Broxton (14), Ryan Braun (10) and Hernan Perez (10).
In Friday night’s game against the Yankees, Jesus Aguilar homered twice, including hitting a grand slam off struggling Yankees reliever Tyler Clippard in the seventh inning to fuel the Brewers to a 9-4 victory. In Saturday’s game, Santana hit a three-run home run in the first inning of a 5-3 loss to the Yankees. In Sunday’s game, Shaw and Stephen Vogt homered to aid the Brewers to a victory.
Here’s what should stand out about the Brewers offense: They have scored 81 runs in the first inning this season, more than any team in baseball while batting .314 as a club with 34 doubles, two triples, 18 home runs and 44 walks.
Not many baseball wonks are talking about it, but it should be mentioned. The Brewers are getting contributions by their starters in Jimmy Nelson and Chase Anderson, who have taken the next step of being effective starters.
Nelson has improved his performance by making use of the curveballs and changeups rather than just stick with throwing heavy diet of sinkers in his first two seasons in Major League Baseball. Anderson has improved his velocity to be more effective this season, and it has produced better results when he throws curveball, cutter and changeup. It also helps that Matt Garza has been healthy and effective after two disappointing injury seasons.
In Sunday’s start against the Yankees, Nelson gave up three runs on seven hits in five innings, striking out six. He has given the Brewers competent starts when he is on the mound. They need to continue to get more out of him in the second half.
The bullpen is a problem. The Brewers blew 13 saves in the first half, and it’s something to keep an eye on in the post-All-Star break. They lead the majors with 19 losses, and they have made 390 appearances already, which is good for logging on for the second-most in the majors. It’s not going to get any better with two more months to go after July is over. That’s something to look at down the stretch. It’s rare teams make the playoffs with a bad bullpen. It hasn’t been a big story since the Cubs haven’t taken advantage of it by winning their fair share of games.
In Sunday’s game, the bullpen was a high-wire act. The Yankees threatened at times, but Carlos Torres, Oliver Drake, Jared Hughes and Corey Knebel found a way to get it done. Brewers manager Craig Counsell was effective in mixing and matching his relievers to get outs before he entrusted Knebel for a four-out save.
It also helped Chase Headley’s shot off Torres turned foul instead of fair in the sixth inning. That could have gave the Yankees a 6-5 lead. Instead, Headley struck out. That was the game-changer in this game, and the Brewers caught a break. It’s the type of break that has helped them stay afloat.
It will be interesting what the Brewers do in the post-All-Star break along with the Cubs and Cardinals. One has to think the Cubs and Cardinals will step up another gear as they play with a sense of urgency, and that’s why people are doubting the Brewers.
Still, the Brew Crew feel they are good enough to win the division. They have found ways to win games. They are going to keep hitting home runs. They know how to get it done. They have earned the benefit of the doubt.
Count the Brewers out at your own risk.
The Yankees found out how good they can be this weekend.
